Nastiest. Campaign. Ever: Nazi Comparisons, Fear Mongering Video, Election Prediction #abvote #wrp #pcaa (UPDATED)

The election campaign has really heated up in the last few days, and things are getting nasty – from accusations of homophobia to racism, both aimed at candidates and at members of the public participating in discussions on Twitter.

Politics is a blood sport at the best of times, and I’ve seen some rough campaigns since I started paying attention to politics; but this campaign is, by far, the nastiest one I have ever seen.

Earlier today, this video showed up on YouTube:

This ad is, well, terrible.  Not only is it completely inaccurate and loaded with lies, but it also is extremely insulting to Albertans.  It is also insulting to Albertans’ intelligence.  The individual or individuals who made this video clearly have absolutely no idea what Albertans are all about, nor do they have any idea how Albertans really think.  This ad, which contains Warren Kinsella’s signature line, “Danielle Smith thinks The Flintstones is historically accurate” actually, at least I think, actually is driving more votes to the Wildrose Party than away from it, because most of us remember the horrible days of the Chretien government between 1993 and 2003, and, most specifically, the nasty 2000 election campaign with all the accusations and terrorism tactics of the “hidden agenda” (which, I also think, is another Warren Kinsellaism – as Mr. Kinsella was involved heavily with the Chretien campaigns.)

In any case, this next video is far, far worse.  I haven’t watched the whole thing, and I doubt you will either, because it is just, plain awful.

The person who created this second video compares Tom Flanagan to Adolph Hitler? Well, not only is it a case of Godwin’s Law going badly wrong for the person, (the moment someone makes a Nazi comparison, they automatically lose the argument) it again is incredibly insulting. If “Vicky Fredericks” really thinks “she” will influence votes away from the Wildrose Party with this particular pile of trash, she is sadly mistaken.

Now, moving on to better information. Leger Marketing released a poll earlier today showing the race has been heating up. Naturally, I grabbed my trusty prediction software and ran the numbers through the computer. Yes, the race has tightened a bit, and there are still a few days left in the campaign, though I think it really is, for Alison Redford, the Worst Premier Ever, too little, too late. Especially with the awful videos I just showed you.

Here’s my calculated numbers based on the Leger Marketing Poll:

Wildrose Party: 58 Seats
PC Party: 25 Seats
NDP: 4 Seats

Again, Raj Sherman ends up with nothing – and deservedly so – because he is, by far, one of the worst provincial opposition party leaders I have ever seen in action.

To make things a little more interesting, I also generated a map of how things may look if this Leger poll translated into reality. Remember though, these predictions are usually completely and totally wild at the riding level, because you are applying regional breakdowns (with larger margins of error) against election results from last time, and things move around a bit over 4 years.

But here it is, for interest’s sake, anyway.

I think it’s fair to say that in terms of nastiness and horrendous campaign tactics, “we ain’t seen nothin’ yet.”

[UPDATE]

It turns out the creator of the “I never thought I’d vote PC” video was not affiliated with the PC Party, but was a 27-year-old named Aviva Zimmerman. Other details include it cost $3000 to make, which exceeds the $1000 limit for unregistered third-party advertising, and, well, Aviva didn’t register as a third party, and the penalty for that offence is  $10,000 fine.  Oops!

Latest Prediction: Leger Marketing, Forum, Campaign Research #wrp #abvote #pcaa

Another set of polls were released recently…

To summarize, here are my predictions ordered by the dates that the polls were taken:

Poll Date(s)

Polling Firm

Seats:

Result

March 22-25

Ipsos-Reid

46

33

2

2

Wildrose Majority

March 22-25

ThinkHQ

34

40

5

4

PC Minority

March 22-25

Leger Marketing

36

43

3

1

PC Minority or Majority

March 26

Forum

63

16

2

2

Wildrose Majority

March 26

Campaign Research

 60 15 5 3

Wildrose Majority

Is it really any wonder the Alberta PC’s are trying to hammer the Wildrose Party on so-called “wedge” issues?  You know they’re worried when they start in on that this early on.

Bob Rae Thinks You’re Stupid

This is my first video blog entry.  Well, if you count “Bye Bye Barlow” it’s actually my second.  Either way, here it is.

There are a few technical things I’m still not entirely happy with, but after a week of messing around, it’s time to publish it anyway.