I’m swearing right now. A lot. I have just found an error in my formula for calculating the number of seats at the low end of a poll’s margin of error. A really subtle error, too, which is why I missed it before today. I had a closing parenthesis out of place by one term…
Read moreGuestimate seat prediction, #nanos April 29: #CPC 147, #NDP 104, #LPC 51, #BQ 6 #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41 Details:
This is a very rough seat prediction, because, while I like Nanos’ methodology, their results aren’t broken down regionally enough, and their methodology also smoothes out the trendline so you have to watch it over a longer period of time. However, because I’m a geek, I fed the numbers into my Seat Predictor and got:…
Read moreBad decision. Shame. #ndp #elxn41 #cdnpoli @sunNewsNetwork @davidAkin
Today, at 6:30pm Mountain time, Sun TV ran a story that, in 1996, Jack Layton was in a massage parlour when it was raided by the Toronto Police Service. Jack Layton was found, naked, in a room as the massage therapist was leaving the room with a wet tissue of some kind in her hand….
Read moreNew Ipsos Reid Poll, Updated Prediction: Tory Majority Probable: #CPC 152 #NDP 124 #LPC 25 #BQ 7 | #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41
Ipsos Reid does not break down their results into urban areas, so this seat prediction is less reliable than the others I’ve published. Okay, let’s be honest. No seat prediction is reliable. I say that simply because to predict the outcome of the next election, one takes the previous election, drops independent MPs from consideration,…
Read moreNew #Ekos poll, new prediction: #CPC 147 #NDP 98 #LPC: 48 #BQ 15 #cpcMajority within reach. #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41
Speaking as a conservative with the correct ideology, the words, “Prime Minister Jack Laakgjlqeagrhv ;n m, (YOU WILL NOT SPEAK HIS NAME!!!!!!!!!) scares the hell out of me; and it should scare you too.
Read moreSomething Nobody is Talking About #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41
I’m just throwing this out there, because, based on what Stephen Harper has been saying, as of right now, it seems fairly unlikely, however elections can cause strange things to happen. Michael Ignatieff and Stephen Harper agree on little. But it does seem that Ignatieff and Harper DO agree that a government headed by Jack…
Read moreUpdated: What the hell? (#Ekos Poll April 25 revisited) #CPC 144, #NDP 107, #LPC 43, #BQ 14 | #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41
(Note – A commenter has pointed out I accidentally plugged in the value for Atlantic Canada’s CPC support into Quebec, which threw all my calculations off. I’ve left the original entry, but I’ve added some corrections in red.) So I looked more closely at the Ekos poll from April 25 today. I discovered that there…
Read more#CPC in Majority Territory (Prediction, #Nanos, April 27, 2011) #CPC 162 #NDP 92 #LPC 38 #BQ 16
The Liberals are in deep trouble. While their seat spread is much smaller, Michael Ignatieff has the potential of leading the Liberal Party to their worst defeat in history…
Read more#LPC in danger of decimation. #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41 #CPC 147 #NDP 100 #LPC 44 #BQ 17 (Angus Reid Poll)
The numbers are very positive for the Conservative party. Despite polling 35%, the concentration of NDP support is in Quebec, at the expense of all other parties. This pulls down the national support figure for the Conservatives, and pulls up the same figure for the NDP.
Read morePrediction: #ekos April 25. #CPC 144, #NDP 108, #LPC 53, #BQ 3 #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41
In the same vein as my last prediction, put out this morning from the data supplied by Nanos Research, here is one based on the data supplied by the most recent Ekos poll, also released today: Conservative: 144 NDP: 108 Liberal: 53 Bloc Quebecois: 3 Ekos is an interesting firm. Their results are always very…
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