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Conveniently, this was left out in the original quote:
> My prediction is based 99% on math – applying the regional shifts in support to the vote garnered by each party in each riding
> last time. Then, I looked at the margin of victory on the old map, overlaid the new map, and guessed, based on the results who
> would take what riding, and by how much. On that front, I could be way off, but I feel pretty comfortable with my prediction.
All my predictions for seat counts are based 99% on math. I deliberately avoid putting my personal partisan biases into working them through. For the record, I accurately predicted the 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2011 federal elections. I called the 2011 a Conservative Majority before virtually anyone else. If you read the blog entry on that particular prediction, you see that I made the mistake of not believing my own numbers! (I also called the 2000 federal election, but that one was pretty obvious from the get-go)
Hubris? No. Math doesn’t have emotions attached to it. 2+2 always equals 4, unless you’re a Liberal (at which point it equals 5).
So what happened in the Alberta prediction? With 20/20 hindsight, it’s obvious – the polls were wrong. Many polls which I relied on where based on IVR technology. So voters would get a recording on the other end of the phone. It’s likely that WRP voters were far more motivated to respond to polls than PCAA voters, who would probably just hang up. The result being a skewed poll. Since I don’t involve myself in polling methodology, I had to base my predictions based upon the assumption that the polls were accurate.
So the GIGO principle applies: Garbage in = Garbage out.
Now, as for my “latest” posting: Yes, it was angry. It was posted just after the result was obvious; and my personal biases are well known. I was angry and disappointed. Just as many federal Liberal supporters were in 2011.
The difference is I am not trying to overturn the result by filing frivolous lawsuits. I’m not questioning the integrity of the voting process. I’m not accusing the PCAA of “robocalls”, nor am I attempting to manufacture pseudoscandals.
You see, I’m a Wild Rose supporter. But I’m also a democrat, and I accept the result that we have. I hate it, but I accept it.
And now, whenever an Albertan starts complaining about something Premier Mom does, I can ask, “did you vote Wildrose?” If they say, “no, I didn’t,” I can smile and look them in the eye, and reply, “well, you really have nobody to blame but yourself then, do you?”
Albertans got the government they deserve. And now they’re suffering the consequences.