New #Ekos poll, new prediction: #CPC 147 #NDP 98 #LPC: 48 #BQ 15 #cpcMajority within reach. #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41

I’m using Ekos data almost exclusively now, because
we’re coming down to the wire, polls will be blacked out soon, and mainly because Ekos has the most detailed breakdowns of regional support.  I’m not a huge fan of Ekos’ methodology, as I’m not convinced it’s an entirely random sample, but on the upside, the other polling firms are reporting similar results.

Nanos is a very strong polling firm as well, however for my purposes, while the three-day rolling poll is good for long-term tracking, I am now looking for a firm that has a huge sample size and small regional breakdowns.

After crunching the numbers, this is what I see:

CPC: 147 (Between 146 and 183)
NDP: 98 (Between 10 and 99)
LPC: 48 (Between 48 and 74)
BQ: 15 (Between 15 and 41)

Obviously a Conservative majority is well within reach at this point.  It all depends on how well the NDP gets out their vote in Quebec, and how the votes come in on a per-riding basis; especially in Quebec.

For an election nobody wanted and about nothing, this one has suddenly turned everything upside down and become extremely interesting.

Speaking as a conservative with the correct ideology, the words, “Prime Minister Jack Laakgjlqeagrhv;nm, (YOU WILL NOT SPEAK THE NAME!!!!!!!!!)” scares the hell out of me; and it should scare you too.

About Steven Britton

Steve is a freelance programmer, partial billionaire, dad, Recovering Atheist, Conservative, and occasionally prolific blogger.