#CPC in Majority Territory (Prediction, #Nanos, April 27, 2011) #CPC 162 #NDP 92 #LPC 38 #BQ 16

The numbers in the title of this page say it all.  The Conservatives seem set for a majority government; however things can still change – especially since Nanos’ does a three-day rolling poll, dropping the oldest data with each day’s release.

The Conservatives currently could win between 159 and 205 seats,
Next is the NDP who, amusingly have either the potential of being wiped out at 7 seats or cruising to Official Opposition at 94 seats.
The Liberals are in deep trouble.  While their seat spread is much smaller, Michael Ignatieff has the potential of leading the Liberal Party to their worst defeat in history: anywhere between 38 and 51 seats – worse even than John Turner did in 1984, when Turner won 40 seats.
The Bloc Quebecois can win anywhere between 16 and 45 seats.

The volatility and high spread in seat counts is caused by the poll’s margin of error in Quebec.  The poll has the NDP at 36.5% and the Bloc Quebecois at 27.4%, however the sample size means a margin of error of 6.3%, which puts numerous seats into play.

About Steven Britton

Steve is a freelance programmer, partial billionaire, dad, Recovering Atheist, Conservative, and occasionally prolific blogger.