Comprehensive seat prediction, ridings to watch, #wrp majority #abvote


At long last, I am now ready to present a comprehensive prediction based on the last two polls released by Forum Research.  I decided to aggregate these two polls because they happened one day apart (Last Saturday and Last Sunday), and both were released by the same company, using the same methodology.  At the right of the screen is a map.  The lightest colours on the map show the ridings with the closest margins of victory.  If you want a closer look, click on the picture.

The Wildrose Party is poised to win about 55 seats (though, as I’ll show later, that is based solely on my numbers.  The eventual result will be based on who shows up to vote and how they cast their ballots.  I’m predicting many close races, so I could be totally out to lunch.)

The PCs should take about 23 seats, and the NDP will bring up the rear with 3, all of which are likely to be in extremely close races.

The Liberals will be wiped out.

Now, as I mentioned, my numbers are very close in many ridings, so here’s a list of “ridings to watch” and my predicted Margin of Victory:

Less than 10 Percent:

Riding – Projected Winner
====================
Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock – PC
Cypress-Medicine Hat – Wildrose
Calgary-Acadia – Wildrose
Calgary-Buffalo – Wildrose
Calgary-Cross – Wildrose
Calgary-Currie – Wildrose
Calgary-Foothills – Wildrose
Calgary-Fort – Wildrose
Calgary-McCall – Wildrose
Calgary-North West – Wildrose
Calgary-South East – Wildrose
Edmonton-Castle Downs – PC
Edmonton-Glenora – PC
Edmonton-Mill Woods – Wildrose
Edmonton-South West – PC (Hunsperger)
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville – PC
Lacombe-Ponoka – Wildrose
Lethbridge-East – Wildrose
Peace River -0 Wildrose
Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre – Wildrose
St. Albert – PC

Less than 5 Percent:
Riding – Projected Winner
====================
Calgary-East – PC
Calgary-Fish Creek – Wildrose
Calgary-Glenmore – Wildrose
Calgary-Greenway – Wildrose (Leech)
Calgary-Hays – Wildrose
Edmonton-Calder – PC
Edmonton-Ellerslie – Wildrose
Edmonton-Manning – NDP
Edmonton-McClung – PC
Edmonton-Meadowlark – PC
Edmonton-Rutherford – NDP
Fort McMurray-Conklin – PC
Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo – PC
Grande Prairie-Wapiti – PC
Lesser Slave Lake – PC
Sony Plain – Wildrose
Strathmore-Brooks – PC
Vermillion-Lloydminster – PC

Less than 1 Percent:
Riding – Projected Winner
====================
Calgary Shaw – PC

Personally, over and above the ridings listed, I will be really watching the following ridings:

Calgary-Elbow (Alison Redford)
Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood (Brian Mason)
Edmonton-Meadowlark  (Raj Sherman)

All three of which are ridings I am predicting will be lost by the incumbent.  My gut feeling, though, is Brian Mason, after his performance in the debate, may retain his seat.

Calgary-Greenway (My riding)
Edmonton-South West (Allan Hunsperger)

Go and Vote!

About Steven Britton

Steve is a freelance programmer, partial billionaire, dad, Recovering Atheist, Conservative, and occasionally prolific blogger.
  • Hey man, not too bad. I will disagree with you on some of these.
    Fort McMurray. Guy is projected to win by a decent margin. I would call that one at least by 10%. The other Fort McMurray riding, I will project a WRP win, by about 4%.
    Fort Saskatchewan-Veg, as I’m on the ground working with this CA for the last week mainly, I will go ahead and predict a tight race, within 500 votes, but I will take Stubbs for a win.
    Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock is way up for grabs. I am going to call Byfield there by about 9%. Many Kowalski people are glad he retired so they can vote freely without fear of retaliation.
    I think that Leech will lose in Greenway.

    • First, thank you for your comment. I guess we will find out tonight after 8pm. I’m gearing up for a long night.

      I think, sadly, you’re right about Leech. I think he, and Hunsperger really put their foot in it. I’m more forgiving of Hunsperger, because at least he can rightly build a case on freedom of religion and opinion. Leech, well, just said something stupid, and should have known better.

      My prediction is based 99% on math – applying the regional shifts in support to the vote garnered by each party in each riding last time. Then, I looked at the margin of victory on the old map, overlaid the new map, and guessed, based on the results who would take what riding, and by how much. On that front, I could be way off, but I feel pretty comfortable with my prediction.

  • Reblogged this on debsimms and commented:
    Click link to continue to Steven Britton’s seat predictions….

  • william

    Calgary Shaw is going WR. Jeff Wilson is polling 5 to 7% ahead of Farouk.

  • Robbie

    Calgary currie is absolutely loaded with liberals. I am quite upset at my election headquarters in Currie. I am a student at USask and sent in an absentee ballot, and was informed by one of the people working there that my ballot was recieved, but i didnt provide proper identification. She said my mother could drop off a piece of ID with my Address on it so she did, but shockingly, the person said my ballot had not been recieved. Coincedentally, my parents have a giant wildrose sign on their lawn. Very frustrating to say the least!

  • Brendan Kane

    “Edmonton-Rutherford – NDP”
    You’re predicting the NDP to win a riding where the last time they had over 12% was 26 years ago?

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