As I posted in my previous entry, I think I made a fairly good prediction of the result of the election, based on the information I had available to me. For my final result model, I used a public opinion poll released on Sunday, May 1, 2011, as it sampled a very large number of people…
Read morePrediction Accuracy Report (Complete) – Can I call it, or can I call it?
On Sunday, I predicted the following result based on my prediction program and intuition: Conservative: 156 (155-160) NDP: 76 (80-80) Liberal: 46 (40-50) Bloc: 30 (25-35) My program initially spit out the following based on Ekos’ data: Conservative: 150 NDP: 116 Liberal: 37 Bloc: 5 Once I had adjusted…
Read moreGood Riddance to Bin Laden #roft #cdnpoli #opinion #commentary
Just a few months away from the 10th anniversary of 9/11, the US has finally managed to take out the mastermind. Osama Bin Laden is dead. Good riddance to bad rubbish. Feed the body to pigs. Reports are that there’s a crowd at the White House cheering and singing the Star Spangled Banner. That, however,…
Read moreCompas Poll: Prediction: #CPC 181, #NDP: 88, #BQ: 26, #LPC 13
I threw this one together just now because someone on Twitter pointed out that Compas has released a prediction of a Conservative majority. I have to admit, of course, that I like this particular poll, and I also like this prediction. Reading deeper into the analysis that Compas put out, it shows incredible volatility in…
Read moreMy Seat Prediction, based on #Ekos, May 1, 2011 and intuition: #CPC 156, #NDP: 76, #LPC: 46, #BQ: 30 #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41
I’ve written before that I question Ekos’ methodology. Traditionally, they always seem to favour the “underdog” in an election poll. In 2008, they missed the results of the Conservative Party by just over 3%, which is a significant amount, especially since they consider their margin of error to be roughly +/- 1.8%. Obviously things happen…
Read moreDarn, crud, poo, and various other words. Found an error. #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41
I’m swearing right now. A lot. I have just found an error in my formula for calculating the number of seats at the low end of a poll’s margin of error. A really subtle error, too, which is why I missed it before today. I had a closing parenthesis out of place by one term…
Read moreGuestimate seat prediction, #nanos April 29: #CPC 147, #NDP 104, #LPC 51, #BQ 6 #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41 Details:
This is a very rough seat prediction, because, while I like Nanos’ methodology, their results aren’t broken down regionally enough, and their methodology also smoothes out the trendline so you have to watch it over a longer period of time. However, because I’m a geek, I fed the numbers into my Seat Predictor and got:…
Read moreBad decision. Shame. #ndp #elxn41 #cdnpoli @sunNewsNetwork @davidAkin
Today, at 6:30pm Mountain time, Sun TV ran a story that, in 1996, Jack Layton was in a massage parlour when it was raided by the Toronto Police Service. Jack Layton was found, naked, in a room as the massage therapist was leaving the room with a wet tissue of some kind in her hand….
Read moreNew Ipsos Reid Poll, Updated Prediction: Tory Majority Probable: #CPC 152 #NDP 124 #LPC 25 #BQ 7 | #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41
Ipsos Reid does not break down their results into urban areas, so this seat prediction is less reliable than the others I’ve published. Okay, let’s be honest. No seat prediction is reliable. I say that simply because to predict the outcome of the next election, one takes the previous election, drops independent MPs from consideration,…
Read moreNew #Ekos poll, new prediction: #CPC 147 #NDP 98 #LPC: 48 #BQ 15 #cpcMajority within reach. #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41
Speaking as a conservative with the correct ideology, the words, “Prime Minister Jack Laakgjlqeagrhv ;n m, (YOU WILL NOT SPEAK HIS NAME!!!!!!!!!) scares the hell out of me; and it should scare you too.
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