Updated: What the hell? (#Ekos Poll April 25 revisited) #CPC 144, #NDP 107, #LPC 43, #BQ 14 | #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41

(Note – A commenter has pointed out I accidentally plugged in the value for Atlantic Canada’s CPC support into Quebec, which threw all my calculations off.  I’ve left the original entry, but I’ve added some corrections in red.) So I looked more closely at the Ekos poll from April 25…

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#CPC in Majority Territory (Prediction, #Nanos, April 27, 2011) #CPC 162 #NDP 92 #LPC 38 #BQ 16

The Liberals are in deep trouble. While their seat spread is much smaller, Michael Ignatieff has the potential of leading the Liberal Party to their worst defeat in history…

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#LPC in danger of decimation. #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41 #CPC 147 #NDP 100 #LPC 44 #BQ 17 (Angus Reid Poll)

The numbers are very positive for the Conservative party. Despite polling 35%, the concentration of NDP support is in Quebec, at the expense of all other parties. This pulls down the national support figure for the Conservatives, and pulls up the same figure for the NDP.

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Prediction: #ekos April 25. #CPC 144, #NDP 108, #LPC 53, #BQ 3 #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41

In the same vein as my last prediction, put out this morning from the data supplied by Nanos Research, here is one based on the data supplied by the most recent Ekos poll, also released today: Conservative: 144 NDP: 108 Liberal: 53 Bloc Quebecois: 3 Ekos is an interesting firm.…

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Prediction (#nanos, April 25, 2011): #CPC 166 #LPC 50 #BQ 47 #NDP 45 #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41

Things are looking very well for the Conservatives, who are in clear majority territory now. Michael Ignatieff’s political career is pretty much over, Jack Layton, if the trends continue, may just become leader of the Official Opposition, and Gilles Duceppe seems to be on track to retirement.

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