Projection Interpretation and Analysis: Pretty Good!

As I posted in my previous entry, I think I made a fairly good prediction of the result of the election, based on the information I had available to me.  For my final result model, I used a public opinion poll released on Sunday, May 1, 2011, as it sampled a…

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Prediction Accuracy Report (Complete) – Can I call it, or can I call it?

On Sunday, I predicted the following result based on my prediction program and intuition: Conservative: 156 (155-160)   NDP: 76 (80-80)   Liberal: 46 (40-50)   Bloc: 30 (25-35) My program initially spit out the following based on Ekos’ data: Conservative: 150   NDP: 116   Liberal: 37   Bloc:…

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My Seat Prediction, based on #Ekos, May 1, 2011 and intuition: #CPC 156, #NDP: 76, #LPC: 46, #BQ: 30 #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41

I’ve written before that I question Ekos’ methodology.  Traditionally, they always seem to favour the “underdog” in an election poll.  In 2008, they missed the results of the Conservative Party by just over 3%, which is a significant amount, especially since they consider their margin of error to be roughly…

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Guestimate seat prediction, #nanos April 29: #CPC 147, #NDP 104, #LPC 51, #BQ 6 #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41 Details:

This is a very rough seat prediction, because, while I like Nanos’ methodology, their results aren’t broken down regionally enough, and their methodology also smoothes out the trendline so you have to watch it over a longer period of time. However, because I’m a geek, I fed the numbers into…

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New Ipsos Reid Poll, Updated Prediction: Tory Majority Probable: #CPC 152 #NDP 124 #LPC 25 #BQ 7 | #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41

Ipsos Reid does not break down their results into urban areas, so this seat prediction is less reliable than the others I’ve published. Okay, let’s be honest.  No seat prediction is reliable.  I say that simply because to predict the outcome of the next election, one takes the previous election,…

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