On Sunday, I predicted the following result based on my prediction program and intuition: Conservative: 156 (155-160) NDP: 76 (80-80) Liberal: 46 (40-50) Bloc: 30 (25-35) My program initially spit out the following based on Ekos’ data: Conservative: 150 NDP: 116 Liberal: 37 Bloc: 5 Once I had adjusted…
Read moreCompas Poll: Prediction: #CPC 181, #NDP: 88, #BQ: 26, #LPC 13
I threw this one together just now because someone on Twitter pointed out that Compas has released a prediction of a Conservative majority. I have to admit, of course, that I like this particular poll, and I also like this prediction. Reading deeper into the analysis that Compas put out, it shows incredible volatility in…
Read moreMy Seat Prediction, based on #Ekos, May 1, 2011 and intuition: #CPC 156, #NDP: 76, #LPC: 46, #BQ: 30 #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41
I’ve written before that I question Ekos’ methodology. Traditionally, they always seem to favour the “underdog” in an election poll. In 2008, they missed the results of the Conservative Party by just over 3%, which is a significant amount, especially since they consider their margin of error to be roughly +/- 1.8%. Obviously things happen…
Read moreDarn, crud, poo, and various other words. Found an error. #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41
I’m swearing right now. A lot. I have just found an error in my formula for calculating the number of seats at the low end of a poll’s margin of error. A really subtle error, too, which is why I missed it before today. I had a closing parenthesis out of place by one term…
Read moreGuestimate seat prediction, #nanos April 29: #CPC 147, #NDP 104, #LPC 51, #BQ 6 #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41 Details:
This is a very rough seat prediction, because, while I like Nanos’ methodology, their results aren’t broken down regionally enough, and their methodology also smoothes out the trendline so you have to watch it over a longer period of time. However, because I’m a geek, I fed the numbers into my Seat Predictor and got:…
Read moreNew Ipsos Reid Poll, Updated Prediction: Tory Majority Probable: #CPC 152 #NDP 124 #LPC 25 #BQ 7 | #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41
Ipsos Reid does not break down their results into urban areas, so this seat prediction is less reliable than the others I’ve published. Okay, let’s be honest. No seat prediction is reliable. I say that simply because to predict the outcome of the next election, one takes the previous election, drops independent MPs from consideration,…
Read moreNew #Ekos poll, new prediction: #CPC 147 #NDP 98 #LPC: 48 #BQ 15 #cpcMajority within reach. #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41
Speaking as a conservative with the correct ideology, the words, “Prime Minister Jack Laakgjlqeagrhv ;n m, (YOU WILL NOT SPEAK HIS NAME!!!!!!!!!) scares the hell out of me; and it should scare you too.
Read moreUpdated: What the hell? (#Ekos Poll April 25 revisited) #CPC 144, #NDP 107, #LPC 43, #BQ 14 | #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41
(Note – A commenter has pointed out I accidentally plugged in the value for Atlantic Canada’s CPC support into Quebec, which threw all my calculations off. I’ve left the original entry, but I’ve added some corrections in red.) So I looked more closely at the Ekos poll from April 25 today. I discovered that there…
Read more#CPC in Majority Territory (Prediction, #Nanos, April 27, 2011) #CPC 162 #NDP 92 #LPC 38 #BQ 16
The Liberals are in deep trouble. While their seat spread is much smaller, Michael Ignatieff has the potential of leading the Liberal Party to their worst defeat in history…
Read more#LPC in danger of decimation. #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41 #CPC 147 #NDP 100 #LPC 44 #BQ 17 (Angus Reid Poll)
The numbers are very positive for the Conservative party. Despite polling 35%, the concentration of NDP support is in Quebec, at the expense of all other parties. This pulls down the national support figure for the Conservatives, and pulls up the same figure for the NDP.
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