I have just visually superimposed an riding map of the new riding distribution over the riding distribution for the 2008 election, and calculated seat results. Then, based on the geography of the new ridings, I’ve tried to adjust the seat counts based on the new number of seats in the Alberta Legislature (87).
It really doesn’t make much of a difference either way, because my result is consistent with virtually every poll that has been released so far dating back to the last prediction I made which has the Wildrose Party taking a decisive landslide victory with the range of about 60 seats. The PCs are well back at approximately 20, with the NDP at 3.
Note that there are no Liberals showing.
Adjusting for the new configuration, Each of the Wildrose and PCs gain two seats, so the result is pretty much a wash.
Here’s my prediction based on the Forum Poll, conducted on April 16, 2012:
Wildrose: 62
PCAA: 22
NDP: 3