Canada on the Brink of Electoral Disaster? I Really Hope I'm Wrong

Party Projected Assured Probable Possible Long Shot Maximum
Conservative 124 40 84 51 18 193
Liberal 136 72 108 108 44 288
New Democrat 71 65 42 42 24 137
Green 1 1 0 0 0 1
Bloc Quebecois 5 0 5 18 15 38

This is my last projection of Campaign 2015.  I hope I’m wrong.

To get this one, I broke one of my own rules:  I aggregated 4 polls.  The reason I did this was all four were released on the same day: today.  So, since there is no significant time decay for the polls to be concerned about, I decided that the differing methodologies of the various polling firms would actually give a better cross section of Canadians, in addition to increasing the overall sample size (and, as I established, widening the Margin of Error as well).

So, when you put all that together, you get the projection you see here.

Based on my projection, I am now going to say that my final projection for the election result will be a Liberal minority government.  Chances are it won’t last very long and we’ll be back to the polls fairly quickly, doing this whole thing over again, but, because of our First Past the Post system, you never know…

Showing the projected winners map. incumbents map. popular support map. (Click to change.)

… and I hope I’m wrong, because if I’m not, well, it means Canadians have voted for someone who is on record as saying that we shouldn’t be fighting a terrorist organization that burns people alive, drowns people, crucifies people, beheads people, and is intent on faith-based genocide.

And that is not what being Canadian means to me.

So, if I’m right, God help Canada.

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