Comprehensive seat prediction, ridings to watch, #wrp majority #abvote


At long last, I am now ready to present a comprehensive prediction based on the last two polls released by Forum Research.  I decided to aggregate these two polls because they happened one day apart (Last Saturday and Last Sunday), and both were released by the same company, using the same methodology.  At the right of the screen is a map.  The lightest colours on the map show the ridings with the closest margins of victory.  If you want a closer look, click on the picture.

The Wildrose Party is poised to win about 55 seats (though, as I’ll show later, that is based solely on my numbers.  The eventual result will be based on who shows up to vote and how they cast their ballots.  I’m predicting many close races, so I could be totally out to lunch.)

The PCs should take about 23 seats, and the NDP will bring up the rear with 3, all of which are likely to be in extremely close races.

The Liberals will be wiped out.

Now, as I mentioned, my numbers are very close in many ridings, so here’s a list of “ridings to watch” and my predicted Margin of Victory:

Less than 10 Percent:

Riding – Projected Winner
====================
Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock – PC
Cypress-Medicine Hat – Wildrose
Calgary-Acadia – Wildrose
Calgary-Buffalo – Wildrose
Calgary-Cross – Wildrose
Calgary-Currie – Wildrose
Calgary-Foothills – Wildrose
Calgary-Fort – Wildrose
Calgary-McCall – Wildrose
Calgary-North West – Wildrose
Calgary-South East – Wildrose
Edmonton-Castle Downs – PC
Edmonton-Glenora – PC
Edmonton-Mill Woods – Wildrose
Edmonton-South West – PC (Hunsperger)
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville – PC
Lacombe-Ponoka – Wildrose
Lethbridge-East – Wildrose
Peace River -0 Wildrose
Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre – Wildrose
St. Albert – PC

Less than 5 Percent:
Riding – Projected Winner
====================
Calgary-East – PC
Calgary-Fish Creek – Wildrose
Calgary-Glenmore – Wildrose
Calgary-Greenway – Wildrose (Leech)
Calgary-Hays – Wildrose
Edmonton-Calder – PC
Edmonton-Ellerslie – Wildrose
Edmonton-Manning – NDP
Edmonton-McClung – PC
Edmonton-Meadowlark – PC
Edmonton-Rutherford – NDP
Fort McMurray-Conklin – PC
Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo – PC
Grande Prairie-Wapiti – PC
Lesser Slave Lake – PC
Sony Plain – Wildrose
Strathmore-Brooks – PC
Vermillion-Lloydminster – PC

Less than 1 Percent:
Riding – Projected Winner
====================
Calgary Shaw – PC

Personally, over and above the ridings listed, I will be really watching the following ridings:

Calgary-Elbow (Alison Redford)
Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood (Brian Mason)
Edmonton-Meadowlark  (Raj Sherman)

All three of which are ridings I am predicting will be lost by the incumbent.  My gut feeling, though, is Brian Mason, after his performance in the debate, may retain his seat.

Calgary-Greenway (My riding)
Edmonton-South West (Allan Hunsperger)

Go and Vote!