With the re-election of Stephen Harper‘s Conservatives to Parliament with a majority of the seats in the House of Commons, a large number of calls for electoral reform are being raised. The old, tired, and inaccurate arguments of “60% of the voters voted against Stephen Harper” are being raised, yet again. I too used a similar…
Read moreWhat’s next for the Conservatives
Now that the campaign is over – and what a roller coaster of a campaign it was, full of ups, downs, lefts, rights, uprisings, and happy endings! Now that it’s over, and we finally have stability for four years, it’s time, I think, to express my opinion on how Stephen Harper should conduct the next…
Read moreProjection Interpretation and Analysis: Pretty Good!
As I posted in my previous entry, I think I made a fairly good prediction of the result of the election, based on the information I had available to me. For my final result model, I used a public opinion poll released on Sunday, May 1, 2011, as it sampled a very large number of people…
Read morePrediction Accuracy Report (Complete) – Can I call it, or can I call it?
On Sunday, I predicted the following result based on my prediction program and intuition: Conservative: 156 (155-160) NDP: 76 (80-80) Liberal: 46 (40-50) Bloc: 30 (25-35) My program initially spit out the following based on Ekos’ data: Conservative: 150 NDP: 116 Liberal: 37 Bloc: 5 Once I had adjusted…
Read moreGood Riddance to Bin Laden #roft #cdnpoli #opinion #commentary
Just a few months away from the 10th anniversary of 9/11, the US has finally managed to take out the mastermind. Osama Bin Laden is dead. Good riddance to bad rubbish. Feed the body to pigs. Reports are that there’s a crowd at the White House cheering and singing the Star Spangled Banner. That, however,…
Read moreCompas Poll: Prediction: #CPC 181, #NDP: 88, #BQ: 26, #LPC 13
I threw this one together just now because someone on Twitter pointed out that Compas has released a prediction of a Conservative majority. I have to admit, of course, that I like this particular poll, and I also like this prediction. Reading deeper into the analysis that Compas put out, it shows incredible volatility in…
Read moreMy Seat Prediction, based on #Ekos, May 1, 2011 and intuition: #CPC 156, #NDP: 76, #LPC: 46, #BQ: 30 #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41
I’ve written before that I question Ekos’ methodology. Traditionally, they always seem to favour the “underdog” in an election poll. In 2008, they missed the results of the Conservative Party by just over 3%, which is a significant amount, especially since they consider their margin of error to be roughly +/- 1.8%. Obviously things happen…
Read moreDarn, crud, poo, and various other words. Found an error. #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41
I’m swearing right now. A lot. I have just found an error in my formula for calculating the number of seats at the low end of a poll’s margin of error. A really subtle error, too, which is why I missed it before today. I had a closing parenthesis out of place by one term…
Read more