New Ipsos Reid Poll, Updated Prediction: Tory Majority Probable: #CPC 152 #NDP 124 #LPC 25 #BQ 7 | #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41

Ipsos Reid does not break down their results into urban areas, so this seat prediction is less reliable than the others I’ve published.

Okay, let’s be honest.  No seat prediction is reliable.  I say that simply because to predict the outcome of the next election, one takes the previous election, drops independent MPs from consideration, and then maps the changes found in regions to individual ridings within the region.  This process has so many uncontrollable variables that the prediction cannot really be considered to be any more than an educated guess.

There.  I’ve said it.

Seat predictions are a guide; not a guarantee, which is why I also publish a range within which I can expect the outcome to occur:

Conservatives: 152-202
New Democrats: 33-124
Liberal 25-42
Bloc Quebecois: 7-31

As you can see, the range of variance in seat counts is huge.  This is due to the inherent volatility in the vote concentrations of various regions, especially in Quebec.  The poll’s margin of error means a very large number of seats are currently in play, which means that Monday’s result is virtually unpredictable, except to say the following:

The Conservatives will win the largest block of seats.  It is probable that the Conservatives will win more than 155 seats, and thus a majority.  It is also likely that Monday will be a disaster for two party leaders – Michael Ignatieff and Gilles Duceppe.

It all comes down to the individual ridings and the choices people make.