Guestimate seat prediction, #nanos April 29: #CPC 147, #NDP 104, #LPC 51, #BQ 6 #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41 Details:

This is a very rough seat prediction, because, while I like Nanos’ methodology, their results aren’t broken down regionally enough, and their methodology also smoothes out the trendline so you have to watch it over a longer period of time. However, because I’m a geek, I fed the numbers into my Seat Predictor and got:…

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New Ipsos Reid Poll, Updated Prediction: Tory Majority Probable: #CPC 152 #NDP 124 #LPC 25 #BQ 7 | #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41

Ipsos Reid does not break down their results into urban areas, so this seat prediction is less reliable than the others I’ve published. Okay, let’s be honest.  No seat prediction is reliable.  I say that simply because to predict the outcome of the next election, one takes the previous election, drops independent MPs from consideration,…

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Updated: What the hell? (#Ekos Poll April 25 revisited) #CPC 144, #NDP 107, #LPC 43, #BQ 14 | #elxn41 #cdnpoli #polls41

(Note – A commenter has pointed out I accidentally plugged in the value for Atlantic Canada’s CPC support into Quebec, which threw all my calculations off.  I’ve left the original entry, but I’ve added some corrections in red.) So I looked more closely at the Ekos poll from April 25 today.  I discovered that there…

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